Working paper

A Peace Baby Boom? Evidence from Colombia’s Peace Agreement

María Elvira Guerra-Cújar, Mounu Prem, Paul Rodríguez-Lesmes, and Juan F. Vargas


Violence affects households’ preferences, perceptions and constraints regarding fertility choices. What happens when violence ends? Using administrative data from Colombia, we find that the end of a long internal conflict differentially increased fertility by 2.6 percent in areas exposed to violence. The effect is present across all reproductive ages and larger in municipalities with higher levels of violence exposure at baseline. It is not driven by heath supply indicators, by the mortality of newborns and infants or by differential migration. We interpret this evidence as consistent with an increased optimism to raise children in a better and safer environment.


fertility; pregnancy; mortality; armed conflict; violence;

See also

Published in

IAST working paper, n. 22-135, March 2022