Résumé

How can a social planner use an intervention to disrupt the status quo and activate sweeping social change? When conformity and coordination incentives are at play, such an intervention operates through at least two channels. It has a direct effect if some individuals exposed to the intervention change their behavior as a result. It also has an indirect effect if others change their behavior because they observe those initial changes. If the indirect effect is large, it can dramatically amplify the direct effect — a possibility that has generated considerable enthusiasm in policy discussions. That said, everyday forms of heterogeneity introduce a number of challenges. I present research based on a mix of models, observational studies, and experimental results. Some types of heterogeneity strongly impede social change simply because they sustain chronic disagreement. Moreover, even when sweeping social change is possible, the social planner should typically anticipate a trade-off between the direct and indirect effects of her intervention. Increasing one effect often means diminishing the other, and social planners may frequently lack the information necessary to navigate this trade-off effectively.

Référence

Sonja Vogt (University of Lausanne), « Social tipping our way - or maybe not - to some kind of future: Recruiting cultural evolutionary processes for social change. », IAST General Seminar, Toulouse : IAST, 10 juin 2025, 11h30–12h30, salle Auditorium 4 (First floor - TSE Building).