Résumé

Why do elites choose to support or undermine a nascent democracy, and are voting rights and civil liberties similarly threatened in this process? To explain the historical emergence and stabilization of the first wave of European democracies, a vast political economy literature has emphasized the threat of unrest, inequality, as well as individual electoral motives. There is however limited evidence on legislators' preferences toward democratization aside from a few prominent cases. In addition, reversals often receive less attention than successful transitions, and democratization is typically operationalized only in a narrow sense through suffrage extension. We address this gap by investigating conservative elites' attitudes toward democracy in a broader sense, analyzing their vote on laws restricting both suffrage and civil liberties, in a context of democratic backsliding. We draw from the case of the French Second Republic (1848-1852), the first European regime to establish universal suffrage and broad civil liberties. Democratization was short-lived, with the election of an anti-republican president in December 1848 and a conservative legislative assembly in May 1849. Between May 1849 and November 1851, the assembly passed several laws weakening democracy, including restrictions of suffrage and civil liberties. We collect roll-call data on eight anti-democratic laws and combine it with detailed information on deputies' biography, exposure to unrest, and socio-economic characteristics of their district. We find that conservative support for anti-democratic laws was high but gradually declined, including among right-wing legislators elected in very unequal areas. Exposure to local unrest has little effect on legislators' vote, and when it does it reduces their support for suffrage restrictions. Finally, attitudes toward suffrage and civil liberties gradually diverge, with the emergence of anti-democratic and pro-universal suffrage attitudes - personified by the president and later emperor Louis-Napoleon Bonaparte.

Référence

Anne Degrave, « Elite Attitudes and the Unraveling of Democracy: Evidence from French Second Republic », IAST Lunch Seminar, Toulouse : IAST, 7 novembre 2025, 12h45–13h00, salle Auditorium 4 (First Floor - TSE Building).