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DTSTART:20251026T030000
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BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:calendar.105161.field_date.0@www.iast.fr
DTSTAMP:20260515T132539Z
CREATED:20260127T122001Z
DESCRIPTION:Laurenz Guenther\, “Do Political Representation Gaps Cause Popu
 lism? Evidence from the 2025 German Election”\, IAST Lunch Seminar\, Toulo
 use: IAST\, May 22\, 2026\, 11:30–12:30\, room Auditorium 4 (First floor -
  TSE Building).\n\nResearch on the rise of populism has largely overlooked
  the explanation populists themselves advance: that they fill political re
 presentation gaps\, defined as discrepancies between mainstream parties’ p
 olicies and the “popular will.” We test this claim in an information-provi
 sion experiment conducted in the weeks leading up to the 2025 German feder
 al election. A sample of 5\,040 German citizens was randomly assigned vary
 ing information about the immigration stance of Germany’s mainstream cente
 r-right CDU—an issue marked by a substantial representation gap. We find t
 hat perceptions of the CDU’s position significantly affect both vote inten
 tions and incentivized behavioral measures: when the CDU is perceived as c
 loser to the electorate’s conservative preferences on immigration\, suppor
 t for the right-wing populist AfD declines. Our estimates indicate that th
 e AfD’s vote share would shrink by as much as 75% if the CDU adopted its i
 mmigration stance. These results suggest that the electoral success of pop
 ulist parties is strongly linked to genuine policy preferences\, rather th
 an being driven solely by dissatisfaction with political elites or protest
  voting.
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Paris:20260522T123000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Paris:20260522T133000
LAST-MODIFIED:20260424T002001Z
LOCATION:Toulouse: IAST\, May 22\, 2026\, 11:30–12:30\, room Auditorium 4 (
 First floor - TSE Building)
SUMMARY:IAST Lunch Seminar
URL;TYPE=URI:https://www.iast.fr/seminars/2026-do-political-representation-
 gaps-cause-populism-evidence-2025-german-election
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